Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 190.420948 233.361037 287.457254 362.096786 464.866361 6.052971e+02 8.190506e+02
2025-02-09 144.315883 193.928374 265.175303 380.080780 571.842570 9.033609e+02 1.588514e+03
2025-02-16 117.980341 168.648177 248.317548 392.502346 673.082938 1.270116e+03 2.955081e+03
2025-02-23 100.480792 150.376934 234.431428 401.204189 771.030298 1.725648e+03 5.495320e+03
2025-03-02 85.591734 132.312463 215.016554 390.767432 822.661282 2.136766e+03 9.374413e+03
2025-03-09 74.479431 118.184868 198.754071 380.163140 868.119493 2.602251e+03 1.639694e+04
2025-03-16 65.297264 105.737607 182.698340 364.227360 890.713852 3.039048e+03 2.819805e+04
2025-03-23 62.711327 104.779190 188.921156 402.786523 1106.803918 4.807293e+03 1.156994e+05
2025-03-30 57.844973 98.641121 182.966458 408.469868 1221.007476 6.435914e+03 4.943062e+05
2025-04-06 54.546003 95.037770 181.717830 426.741323 1405.381856 9.480307e+03 1.590413e+07
2025-04-13 50.103804 88.486387 172.498457 418.673143 1472.502053 1.194724e+04 NaN
2025-04-20 49.020951 88.714601 179.194347 462.743216 1852.768527 2.275883e+04 NaN
2025-04-27 47.361079 87.666460 183.097083 502.179830 2299.501575 4.766025e+04 NaN
2025-05-04 45.416206 85.731020 184.426628 534.346161 2786.738724 1.096569e+05 NaN
2025-05-11 43.204134 82.878844 182.737023 554.870140 3255.601541 2.742651e+05 NaN
2025-05-18 41.001085 79.752449 179.667773 568.882600 3729.140835 8.460376e+05 NaN
2025-05-25 38.157141 74.779106 170.449776 552.355693 3859.547189 1.926205e+06 NaN
2025-06-01 35.613303 70.261466 161.843492 535.601702 3971.819428 5.415444e+06 NaN
2025-06-08 33.119133 65.621274 152.181868 510.553115 3938.702740 1.367732e+07 NaN
2025-06-15 32.920672 66.557854 159.408900 571.453243 5396.690694 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 31.533141 64.377558 156.638969 580.511224 6110.903071 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 30.640009 63.352823 157.372696 609.770384 7484.791255 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 29.042617 60.359778 151.212987 596.824394 7832.018129 NaN NaN